$250.00Chroma 2 Case
$3.30 case + $15.90 key = $19.20
−84% returnOpen free
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case contents & odds
Every skin the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case can drop, the odds of each, what it costs to open and what it is worth on average. It first sold on the Steam Community Market on 5 November 2014.
Case price
$3.92
Key
$14.23
Cost to open
$18.15
Expected value
$3.89
Return
−79%
Prices updated 10 November 2026. Key: $14.23 (market, 58 listings). Case price is the lowest listing (180 listings).
About the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case holds 14 weapon skins across four rarities, plus a rare special pool of 65 knives. The most valuable regular skin is the AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel, listed from $70.62 to $356.63 depending on wear. It costs $18.15 to open: $3.92 for the case and $14.23 for the key.
Because the rarity odds are fixed, the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case comes down to its list of skins. A knife or gloves drop is 0.26% per opening, about 1 in 385; open it 100 times and the chance of at least one is 23%. Want to see how that feels before paying? Try the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case in the free case simulator, which uses these exact odds, then compare it with every other case on the case odds page.
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case odds by rarity
Valve's disclosed rates are the same for every weapon case. What differs per case is how many skins share each tier, which sets the chance of each individual skin, and what those skins are worth.
| Rarity | Chance | Skins | Chance per skin | Average skin value | Adds to EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 5 | 15.984% | $1.38 | $1.10 |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 4 | 3.995% | $6.27 | $1.00 |
| Classified | 3.20% | 3 | 1.067% | $13.15 | $0.42 |
| Covert | 0.64% | 2 | 0.320% | $87.42 | $0.56 |
| Rare special item | 0.26% | 65 | 0.004% | $309.54 | $0.80 |
| Total | 100.00% | $3.89 |
Expected value = sum of each rarity's chance times the average value of its skins. Skin value is the lowest listing at each wear, weighted by how much of the skin's float range falls in that wear, with the 10% StatTrak roll included. Wears with no live listing are left out of the average.
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case contents
Every skin below can drop. Odds are per opening; a price range is the lowest listing across the wears the skin can come in. Check the exact float range of any skin with the float checker.
Mil-Spec
79.92% for the tier, 15.984% per skin
MAG-7
Firestarter
$0.65 to $8.07
15.984% per opening · StatTrak
UMP-45
Delusion
$0.57 to $5.00
15.984% per opening · StatTrak
Five-SeveN
Urban Hazard
$2.09 to $3.00
15.984% per opening · StatTrak
MP9
Dart
$0.54 to $2.79
15.984% per opening · StatTrak
G3SG1
Murky
$0.53 to $1.61
15.984% per opening · StatTrak
Restricted
15.98% for the tier, 3.995% per skin
M4A4
Griffin
$2.76 to $63.45
3.995% per opening · StatTrak
M4A1-S
Basilisk
$6.49 to $21.75
3.995% per opening · StatTrak
Glock-18
Grinder
$1.80 to $8.29
3.995% per opening · StatTrak
Sawed-Off
Highwayman
$1.22 to $4.00
3.995% per opening · StatTrak
Classified
3.20% for the tier, 1.067% per skin
XM1014
Tranquility
$7.74 to $45.79
1.067% per opening · StatTrak
SCAR-20
Cardiac
$6.79 to $41.70
1.067% per opening · StatTrak
P250
Cartel
$8.76 to $24.13
1.067% per opening · StatTrak
Covert
0.64% for the tier, 0.320% per skin
AK-47
Wasteland Rebel
$70.62 to $356.63
0.320% per opening · StatTrak
P2000
Fire Elemental
$69.96 to $96.84
0.320% per opening · StatTrak
Rare special item
0.26% for the tier, 0.004% per item
★ Karambit
Crimson Web
$538.86 to $5,797.01
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Crimson Web
$367.53 to $3,564.00
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Karambit
Fade
$1,530.00
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Case Hardened
$405.96 to $1,516.92
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Karambit
Boreal Forest
$333.74 to $1,207.50
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Karambit
Scorched
$368.49 to $1,189.78
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Karambit
Vanilla
$1,188.09
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Karambit
Blue Steel
$582.52 to $1,158.01
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Safari Mesh
$249.91 to $1,009.47
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Karambit
Slaughter
$775.74 to $1,007.23
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Fade
$310.22 to $993.22
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Karambit
Case Hardened
$608.54 to $959.25
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Night
$118.10 to $900.75
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Crimson Web
$59.20 to $895.44
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Karambit
Safari Mesh
$330.71 to $892.40
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Vanilla
$850.00
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Slaughter
$591.69 to $812.51
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Karambit
Urban Masked
$346.47 to $807.47
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Fade
$780.00
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Night
$280.96 to $748.53
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Karambit
Stained
$464.48 to $725.52
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Karambit
Night
$420.69 to $707.98
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Blue Steel
$407.88 to $698.72
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Forest DDPAT
$248.23 to $690.46
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Case Hardened
$200.10 to $598.99
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Night
$43.25 to $559.44
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Scorched
$255.37 to $529.54
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Stained
$322.39 to $495.11
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Night
$98.86 to $429.25
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Safari Mesh
$105.22 to $404.11
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Urban Masked
$269.90 to $398.87
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Stained
$125.89 to $395.28
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Karambit
Forest DDPAT
$325.42 to $380.69
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Slaughter
$261.04 to $360.10
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Blue Steel
$168.66 to $357.53
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ M9 Bayonet
Boreal Forest
$248.00 to $356.49
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Scorched
$99.42 to $347.10
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Fade
$243.42 to $342.40
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Slaughter
$247.90 to $338.35
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Boreal Forest
$107.75 to $333.97
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Stained
$99.71 to $321.67
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Safari Mesh
$88.26 to $307.46
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Case Hardened
$138.81 to $305.57
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Crimson Web
$172.06 to $294.54
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Blue Steel
$139.33 to $272.52
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Crimson Web
$165.54 to $249.75
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Urban Masked
$101.08 to $212.58
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Vanilla
$205.92
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Fade
$104.96 to $190.30
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Case Hardened
$84.42 to $190.00
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Scorched
$110.83 to $163.20
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Urban Masked
$115.64 to $152.62
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Vanilla
$147.63
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Bayonet
Forest DDPAT
$108.05 to $147.59
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Urban Masked
$43.84 to $140.00
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Blue Steel
$57.20 to $138.79
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Slaughter
$91.46 to $132.49
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Boreal Forest
$97.51 to $125.52
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Safari Mesh
$39.05 to $120.00
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Stained
$51.38 to $114.57
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Flip Knife
Forest DDPAT
$94.18 to $103.32
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Scorched
$42.43 to $84.59
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Boreal Forest
$43.02 to $59.42
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Vanilla
$54.46
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
★ Gut Knife
Forest DDPAT
$39.99 to $48.91
0.004% per opening · StatTrak
Knives and gloves are the rare special pool: the case never shows which one until it opens, and the pool's average uses the average lowest listing across every item in it. See current knife prices on the cheapest knives page. “No listing” means nothing is on sale right now.
Other cases
$250.00
$153.99Falchion Case
$1.30 case + $13.00 key = $14.30
−85% returnOpen free
$151.76Chroma Case
$4.24 case + $16.80 key = $21.04
−83% returnOpen free
$78.25eSports 2013 Case
$41.23 case + $2.49 key = $43.72
−68% returnOpen free
$90.99eSports 2013 Winter Case
$10.17 case + $2.49 key = $12.66
+12% returnOpen free
$289.39eSports 2014 Summer Case
$11.09 case + $2.49 key = $13.58
−45% returnOpen free
See all CS2 cases, or work out what a drop would leave you after Steam's cut with the Steam fee calculator.
FAQ
How much does it cost to open a Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
$18.15 at the prices of 10 November 2026: $3.92 for the case plus $14.23 for the key. This case uses its own key, which Valve no longer sells in its store, so the key price is the lowest player listing (58 listings).
What are the odds in the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
Valve's disclosed rates apply: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and a rare special item (knives) 0.26%. With 5 Mil-Spec skins, each one is about 15.98%.
What is the best skin in the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
Among the regular skins, AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel is the most valuable, listed from $70.62 to $356.63 depending on wear. The rare special pool (knives) holds the biggest prices, up to $5,797.01, at a combined 0.26% chance.
Is the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case worth opening?
On average, no: one opening is worth about $3.89 in lowest-listing prices against a cost of $18.15, a return of −79%. Selling on Steam takes a 15% fee on top, and the average is carried by very rare drops, so most single openings return less than they cost.
Can I open the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case for free?
Yes, in the case simulator. It uses this case's real contents, Valve's disclosed rates and the prices on this page, and it spins a reel for each opening. Nothing is bought and nothing is added to a Steam inventory. You can open up to five at once and the session tally shows what the cases and keys would have cost.
Do StatTrak skins drop from this case?
Yes. Any skin that exists as StatTrak has a 10% chance of being StatTrak when it drops. The expected value figures include that.
More CS2 tools
Case SimulatorOpen any CS2 case free with real odds, wear, float and prices.Case Odds & EVOdds per rarity and expected value of every case.Trade-Up CalculatorOdds, output floats, expected value and ROI for any ten-skin contract.Inventory Value CheckerPaste a Steam profile and price every CS2 item in it.Float CheckerDecode an inspect link, or look up any skin's float cap and wear tiers.Steam Market Fee CalculatorWhat a buyer pays and what you keep after Steam's 15% cut.
