CS2 case odds & expected value

Valve's disclosed drop rates for every rarity, and below them every CS2 case ranked by what it is worth on average against what it costs to open: case price plus key, priced from live market listings.

Prices updated 10 November 202642 cases rankedStatTrak included

CS2 case odds by rarity

These are the drop rates Valve disclosed for weapon cases, published through its Chinese publishing partner Perfect World in 2017 after China began requiring loot box odds to be shown. They have been reported unchanged in CS2 and are the same for every weapon case. Valve does not publish them on Steam itself.

Rarity	Chance	About 1 in	What it holds
Mil-Spec	79.92%	1	Weapon skins
Restricted	15.98%	6	Weapon skins
Classified	3.20%	31	Weapon skins
Covert	0.64%	156	Top weapon skins of the case
Rare special item	0.26%	385	Knives or gloves, depending on the case

StatTrak: any skin that exists as StatTrak has a 10% chance of dropping as one. Within a rarity each skin is equally likely.

Best CS2 cases by expected return

The three highest returns at the 10 November 2026snapshot are below. A high figure here usually means one expensive skin is carrying the average, so read each case's contents page before treating it as a bargain, and open it in the simulator to see how most openings go.

$90.99

eSports 2013 Winter Case

$10.17 case + $2.49 key = $12.66

+12% returnOpen free

$116.42

CS:GO Weapon Case 3

$11.68 case + $2.49 key = $14.17

−35% returnOpen free

$116.99

CS:GO Weapon Case 2

$17.40 case + $2.49 key = $19.89

−35% returnOpen free

Every CS2 case ranked by expected return

Expected value is what one opening is worth on average at the lowest live listing, before Steam's 15% selling fee. Return is expected value over cost to open. Click a case for its full contents and per-skin odds.

#	Case	Case price	Key	Cost to open	Expected value	Return
1	eSports 2013 Winter Case	$10.17	$2.49	$12.66	$14.18	+12%
2	CS:GO Weapon Case 3	$11.68	$2.49	$14.17	$9.19	−35%
3	CS:GO Weapon Case 2	$17.40	$2.49	$19.89	$12.86	−35%
4	Operation Hydra Case	$24.80	$2.50	$27.30	$16.45	−40%
5	Shattered Web Case	$3.48	$2.49	$5.97	$3.31	−45%
6	eSports 2014 Summer Case	$11.09	$2.49	$13.58	$7.41	−45%
7	Prisma 2 Case	$0.87	$2.49	$3.36	$1.75	−48%
8	Operation Broken Fang Case	$4.68	$2.49	$7.17	$3.64	−49%
9	Gallery Case	$0.51	$2.49	$3.00	$1.47	−51%
10	Operation Riptide Case	$5.89	$2.49	$8.38	$4.10	−51%
11	Dreams & Nightmares Case	$0.72	$2.49	$3.21	$1.49	−54%
12	Snakebite Case	$0.31	$2.49	$2.80	$1.30	−54%
13	Revolution Case	$0.12	$2.49	$2.61	$1.08	−59%
14	Fever Case	$0.59	$2.49	$3.08	$1.26	−59%
15	Recoil Case	$0.19	$2.49	$2.68	$1.05	−61%
16	Operation Bravo Case	$52.43	$2.49	$54.92	$18.72	−66%
17	Fracture Case	$0.37	$2.49	$2.86	$0.97	−66%
18	Kilowatt Case	$0.11	$2.49	$2.60	$0.84	−68%
19	CS:GO Weapon Case	$96.83	$7.70	$104.53	$33.50	−68%
20	eSports 2013 Case	$41.23	$2.49	$43.72	$14.01	−68%
21	Huntsman Weapon Case	$7.04	$11.19	$18.23	$5.24	−71%
22	Winter Offensive Weapon Case	$8.34	$11.00	$19.34	$5.20	−73%
23	Operation Vanguard Weapon Case	$3.92	$14.23	$18.15	$3.89	−79%
24	Glove Case	$7.59	$22.33	$29.92	$6.16	−79%
25	Chroma Case	$4.24	$16.80	$21.04	$3.65	−83%
26	Operation Phoenix Weapon Case	$3.35	$13.99	$17.34	$2.88	−83%
27	Chroma 2 Case	$3.30	$15.90	$19.20	$3.17	−84%
28	Gamma Case	$2.66	$15.30	$17.96	$2.77	−85%
29	Operation Wildfire Case	$2.30	$16.99	$19.29	$2.94	−85%
30	Falchion Case	$1.30	$13.00	$14.30	$2.14	−85%
31	Shadow Case	$1.41	$13.11	$14.52	$2.16	−85%
32	Operation Breakout Weapon Case	$6.82	$25.81	$32.63	$4.52	−86%
33	Spectrum Case	$3.12	$15.56	$18.68	$2.56	−86%
34	Gamma 2 Case	$2.67	$18.42	$21.09	$2.69	−87%
35	Chroma 3 Case	$2.82	$21.01	$23.83	$2.85	−88%
36	Horizon Case	$1.25	$16.18	$17.43	$2.03	−88%
37	Prisma Case	$0.89	$15.24	$16.13	$1.87	−88%
38	Revolver Case	$2.23	$20.63	$22.86	$2.63	−88%
39	Danger Zone Case	$0.87	$15.11	$15.98	$1.42	−91%
40	Spectrum 2 Case	$2.66	$24.78	$27.44	$2.25	−92%
41	Clutch Case	$0.40	$14.26	$14.66	$1.02	−93%
42	CS20 Case	$0.68	$21.99	$22.67	$1.57	−93%

Key is Valve's $2.49 store key unless the case uses its own key (CS20, Spectrum 2, Operation Hydra, Revolver, Winter Offensive), in which case it is the lowest player listing, often one or two listings only. Single-listing prices on old cases move a lot day to day.

How the calculator works

Each case's skins are grouped by rarity, plus its knife or glove pool as the rare special tier.
For every skin we take the lowest listing at each wear it can drop in. A wear counts in proportion to how much of the skin's float range falls in it, so a skin capped at 0.08 float is mostly Minimal Wear. Wears with no live listing are left out. A lone listing priced more than five times a better wear's is dropped as a stray listing.
StatTrak skins are valued 90% normal and 10% at the StatTrak price.
Each rarity's value is the plain average of its skins. Knife and glove pools use the average lowest listing across the pool.
Expected value = Σ (rarity chance × rarity average). Return = expected value ÷ (case + key) − 1.

Worked example: Kilowatt Case

Rarity	Chance	Skins priced	Average skin value	Chance × value
Mil-Spec	79.92%	7 of 7	$0.24	$0.19
Restricted	15.98%	5 of 5	$0.56	$0.09
Classified	3.20%	3 of 3	$4.75	$0.15
Covert	0.64%	2 of 2	$34.70	$0.22
Rare special item	0.26%	13 of 13	$69.92	$0.18
Expected value				$0.84

Cost to open: $0.11 case + $2.49 key = $2.60. Return −68%.

What this does not include

Prices are lowest listings, not what a skin sells for, and selling on Steam costs 15%. Float is assumed uniform inside a skin's cap; Valve does not publish its exact float roll. Sticker capsules, souvenir packages and other containers are not covered. Use the Steam fee calculator to see what you would keep from a drop, or the case simulator to see how far results swing from the average.

What the ranking means in practice

Of the 42 cases here, 41 return less than they cost to open, and the middle case returns −71%. 18of them use Valve's standard $2.49 key, so for those the spread comes almost entirely from the skins. Expected value is an average over a very large number of openings. In a single opening you are far more likely to get a Mil-Spec skin worth well under the key, which is why a handful of knife drops can make or break a long session in the case simulator.

If a drop is a keeper, check what wear it landed with the float checker. If you want to sell, remember Steam's cut and use the Steam fee calculator. If you have a pile of spare skins, the trade-up calculator shows whether a contract beats selling them, and the cheapest knives page shows what the rarest drop is worth. Browse everything a case can give on the CS2 cases page.

FAQ

What are the odds of opening a knife or gloves from a CS2 case?

0.26%, about 1 in 385 cases. That is Valve's disclosed rate for the rare special item tier, which holds the knives or gloves for that case. A StatTrak knife is a further 10% of those, roughly 1 in 3,850.

What are the odds of each rarity in a CS2 case?

Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and rare special item 0.26%. The rates were disclosed through Valve's Chinese publishing partner in 2017 and are the same for every weapon case. Within a tier every skin has an equal chance, so a case with more skins in a tier gives each one a lower chance.

How is the expected value of a case calculated?

For each rarity, we take the average value of its skins and multiply it by that rarity's chance, then add the five results. A skin's value is the lowest live Steam Market listing at each wear it can drop in, weighted by how much of its float range sits in that wear, with a 10% StatTrak roll. Prices are the skins.com feed of 10 November 2026.

Is it profitable to open CS2 cases?

Not on average. At the prices of 10 November 2026, 1 of 42 cases return more than a case plus a key costs, and that is before Steam's 15% selling fee. The average is carried by knife and glove drops that almost never happen, so most single openings lose money.

Which CS2 case has the best ROI?

The ranking above is sorted by it. In the 10 November 2026 snapshot the top three are eSports 2013 Winter Case (+12%), CS:GO Weapon Case 3 (−35%), CS:GO Weapon Case 2 (−35%). Cases whose key is not the standard $2.49 sit at the bottom because the cost to open is so high, and old cases with a handful of listings can jump around from one day to the next, so check the listing counts before relying on a single figure.

Why do knife and glove prices use an average?

The game decides the rare special item before showing it, and every knife or glove finish in the case's pool is equally likely. So the value of that tier is the average lowest listing across the pool, wear-weighted, not the price of any one knife. Items with no live listing are left out of the average, which slightly flatters the figure for pools with many unlisted finishes.

Do the odds change with the key or the case price?

No. Odds are fixed by rarity. Prices change what a drop is worth and what you pay to open, which is why the expected value and ROI move from day to day while the odds do not.

More CS2 tools

Case SimulatorOpen any CS2 case free with real odds, wear, float and prices.CS2 CasesEvery case with price, key, contents and odds.Trade-Up CalculatorOdds, output floats, expected value and ROI for any ten-skin contract.Inventory Value CheckerPaste a Steam profile and price every CS2 item in it.Float CheckerDecode an inspect link, or look up any skin's float cap and wear tiers.Steam Market Fee CalculatorWhat a buyer pays and what you keep after Steam's 15% cut.