$488.49Chroma 3 Case
$2.82 case + $21.01 key = $23.83
−88% returnOpen free
Shadow Case contents & odds
Every skin the Shadow Case can drop, the odds of each, what it costs to open and what it is worth on average. It first sold on the Steam Community Market on 15 September 2015.
Case price
$1.41
Key
$13.11
Cost to open
$14.52
Expected value
$2.16
Return
−85%
Prices updated 10 November 2026. Key: $13.11 (market, 79 listings). Case price is the lowest listing (1822 listings).
About the Shadow Case
The Shadow Case holds 16 weapon skins across four rarities, plus a rare special pool of 13 knives. The most valuable regular skin is the USP-S | Kill Confirmed, listed from $54.48 to $209.00 depending on wear. It costs $14.52 to open: $1.41 for the case and $13.11 for the key.
Because the rarity odds are fixed, the Shadow Case comes down to its list of skins. A knife or gloves drop is 0.26% per opening, about 1 in 385; open it 100 times and the chance of at least one is 23%. Want to see how that feels before paying? Try the Shadow Case in the free case simulator, which uses these exact odds, then compare it with every other case on the case odds page.
Shadow Case odds by rarity
Valve's disclosed rates are the same for every weapon case. What differs per case is how many skins share each tier, which sets the chance of each individual skin, and what those skins are worth.
| Rarity | Chance | Skins | Chance per skin | Average skin value | Adds to EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 7 | 11.417% | $0.60 | $0.48 |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 4 | 3.995% | $2.88 | $0.46 |
| Classified | 3.20% | 3 | 1.067% | $15.94 | $0.51 |
| Covert | 0.64% | 2 | 0.320% | $82.39 | $0.53 |
| Rare special item | 0.26% | 13 | 0.020% | $70.56 | $0.18 |
| Total | 100.00% | $2.16 |
Expected value = sum of each rarity's chance times the average value of its skins. Skin value is the lowest listing at each wear, weighted by how much of the skin's float range falls in that wear, with the 10% StatTrak roll included. Wears with no live listing are left out of the average.
Shadow Case contents
Every skin below can drop. Odds are per opening; a price range is the lowest listing across the wears the skin can come in. Check the exact float range of any skin with the float checker.
Mil-Spec
79.92% for the tier, 11.417% per skin
Glock-18
Wraiths
$0.38 to $6.32
11.417% per opening · StatTrak
FAMAS
Survivor Z
$0.31 to $3.32
11.417% per opening · StatTrak
Dual Berettas
Dualing Dragons
$0.26 to $3.14
11.417% per opening · StatTrak
XM1014
Scumbria
$0.20 to $1.49
11.417% per opening · StatTrak
SCAR-20
Green Marine
$0.20 to $1.40
11.417% per opening · StatTrak
MAC-10
Rangeen
$0.23 to $0.83
11.417% per opening · StatTrak
MAG-7
Cobalt Core
$0.33 to $0.76
11.417% per opening · StatTrak
Restricted
15.98% for the tier, 3.995% per skin
Galil AR
Stone Cold
$1.60 to $21.29
3.995% per opening · StatTrak
MP7
Special Delivery
$0.90 to $14.40
3.995% per opening · StatTrak
P250
Wingshot
$1.31 to $6.65
3.995% per opening · StatTrak
M249
Nebula Crusader
$0.88 to $6.28
3.995% per opening · StatTrak
Classified
3.20% for the tier, 1.067% per skin
AK-47
Frontside Misty
$14.22 to $86.40
1.067% per opening · StatTrak
G3SG1
Flux
$6.41 to $48.79
1.067% per opening · StatTrak
SSG 08
Big Iron
$7.52 to $23.25
1.067% per opening · StatTrak
Covert
0.64% for the tier, 0.320% per skin
USP-S
Kill Confirmed
$54.48 to $209.00
0.320% per opening · StatTrak
M4A1-S
Golden Coil
$49.88 to $172.31
0.320% per opening · StatTrak
Rare special item
0.26% for the tier, 0.020% per item
★ Shadow Daggers
Crimson Web
$60.80 to $404.30
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
★ Shadow Daggers
Scorched
$40.18 to $230.97
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
★ Shadow Daggers
Case Hardened
$70.05 to $198.33
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
★ Shadow Daggers
Fade
$121.28 to $184.80
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
★ Shadow Daggers
Blue Steel
$50.72 to $160.20
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
★ Shadow Daggers
Safari Mesh
$35.51 to $156.77
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
★ Shadow Daggers
Stained
$46.02 to $144.00
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
★ Shadow Daggers
Urban Masked
$40.30 to $127.50
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
★ Shadow Daggers
Slaughter
$86.48 to $120.99
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
★ Shadow Daggers
Boreal Forest
$43.59 to $104.47
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
★ Shadow Daggers
Night
$39.28 to $69.23
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
★ Shadow Daggers
Forest DDPAT
$46.75 to $61.00
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
★ Shadow Daggers
Vanilla
$57.50
0.020% per opening · StatTrak
Knives and gloves are the rare special pool: the case never shows which one until it opens, and the pool's average uses the average lowest listing across every item in it. See current knife prices on the cheapest knives page. “No listing” means nothing is on sale right now.
Other cases
$488.49
$298.28Operation Wildfire Case
$2.30 case + $16.99 key = $19.29
−85% returnOpen free
$135.76Revolver Case
$2.23 case + $20.63 key = $22.86
−88% returnOpen free
$250.00Chroma 2 Case
$3.30 case + $15.90 key = $19.20
−84% returnOpen free
$153.99Falchion Case
$1.30 case + $13.00 key = $14.30
−85% returnOpen free
$151.76Chroma Case
$4.24 case + $16.80 key = $21.04
−83% returnOpen free
See all CS2 cases, or work out what a drop would leave you after Steam's cut with the Steam fee calculator.
FAQ
How much does it cost to open a Shadow Case?
$14.52 at the prices of 10 November 2026: $1.41 for the case plus $13.11 for the key. This case uses its own key, which Valve no longer sells in its store, so the key price is the lowest player listing (79 listings).
What are the odds in the Shadow Case?
Valve's disclosed rates apply: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and a rare special item (knives) 0.26%. With 7 Mil-Spec skins, each one is about 11.42%.
What is the best skin in the Shadow Case?
Among the regular skins, USP-S | Kill Confirmed is the most valuable, listed from $54.48 to $209.00 depending on wear. The rare special pool (knives) holds the biggest prices, up to $404.30, at a combined 0.26% chance.
Is the Shadow Case worth opening?
On average, no: one opening is worth about $2.16 in lowest-listing prices against a cost of $14.52, a return of −85%. Selling on Steam takes a 15% fee on top, and the average is carried by very rare drops, so most single openings return less than they cost.
Can I open the Shadow Case for free?
Yes, in the case simulator. It uses this case's real contents, Valve's disclosed rates and the prices on this page, and it spins a reel for each opening. Nothing is bought and nothing is added to a Steam inventory. You can open up to five at once and the session tally shows what the cases and keys would have cost.
Do StatTrak skins drop from this case?
Yes. Any skin that exists as StatTrak has a 10% chance of being StatTrak when it drops. The expected value figures include that.
More CS2 tools
Case SimulatorOpen any CS2 case free with real odds, wear, float and prices.Case Odds & EVOdds per rarity and expected value of every case.Trade-Up CalculatorOdds, output floats, expected value and ROI for any ten-skin contract.Inventory Value CheckerPaste a Steam profile and price every CS2 item in it.Float CheckerDecode an inspect link, or look up any skin's float cap and wear tiers.Steam Market Fee CalculatorWhat a buyer pays and what you keep after Steam's 15% cut.
