CS2 case simulator
Open any CS2 weapon case with the real contents, Valve's disclosed odds and current market prices. Every drop shows its wear, float, StatTrak roll and lowest listing.
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How to use the case simulator
- Pick a case from the picture grid, or search by name. A link such as /case-simulator/?case=kilowatt-case opens it ready to go. The cost of one case plus one key sits next to the case image.
- Choose how many cases to open at once, from 1 to 5. Each one gets its own reel and they all spin together.
- Press Open case. The case shakes, the reels run for about five and a half seconds and stop on the drop. Press Skip to jump straight to it.
- Read the result card: rarity, wear, exact float, StatTrak and the lowest live listing at that wear.
- Watch the tally under the reels. Net is the value of everything you pulled minus every case and key you bought.
Quick open skips the animation and shows the result at once, handy for running a few hundred openings. Sound is off until you switch it on. If your device asks for reduced motion the reels never spin and the result appears immediately.
How the reel and the odds work
The drop is decided first and the reel is built around it. Rarity is rolled with Valve's disclosed rates, one skin is picked evenly from that rarity, then a float is drawn between the skin's minimum and maximum and its wear follows from the float. The other tiles on the reel are rolled the same way, so the strip you see looks like the real thing: mostly blue Mil-Spec skins with the odd purple, pink and red one.
A knife or glove can drop from every weapon case. In the game the reel shows those as a gold star until the reel stops, and the simulator does the same, so a gold tile near the marker is worth holding your breath for. Every item that exists as StatTrak™ has a 10% chance of dropping as one, and prices are looked up for that variant.
Prices are the lowest live Steam Market listing at the wear that dropped, from a snapshot dated 10 November 2026. Where a skin has no listing at that wear the card says so and counts it as zero in the tally. For the maths behind these rates and the average value of every case, see the case odds and expected value page.
Odds the simulator uses
| Rarity | Chance per opening | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 1 |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 6 |
| Classified | 3.20% | 31 |
| Covert | 0.64% | 156 |
| Rare special item | 0.26% | 385 |
Valve's disclosed weapon case rates, published through its Chinese publishing partner in 2017. Details and the expected value of every case are on the case odds page.
Popular cases to simulate
| Case | Cost to open | Expected value | Return | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kilowatt Case | $2.60 | $0.84 | −68% | Simulate |
 Fever Case | $3.08 | $1.26 | −59% | Simulate |
 Dreams & Nightmares Case | $3.21 | $1.49 | −54% | Simulate |
 Recoil Case | $2.68 | $1.05 | −61% | Simulate |
 Revolution Case | $2.61 | $1.08 | −59% | Simulate |
 Chroma 2 Case | $19.20 | $3.17 | −84% | Simulate |
See all 42 CS2 caseswith their contents, or open a case's own page for every skin and the chance of each.
What to expect from a session
Take the Kilowatt Case. One opening costs $2.60, and across many openings it is worth $0.84 on average, a return of −68%. A hundred openings would cost about $260.00. In that run you have a 23% chance of seeing at least one knife or glove and a 47% chance of at least one Covert skin, so most of the value in a long session comes from one or two lucky drops while everything else loses money. Pulling a knife in the first ten openings is roughly a 2.6% event.
That is why the simulator is useful. It shows how rough the swings are without spending anything, and lets you compare cases before you look at the numbers on the cases page. If you want to know what a drop would fetch after Steam's cut, run it through the Steam fee calculator, and if you want to turn a pile of low-tier drops into something better, try the trade-up calculator. To see how rare a knife drop really is and what it is worth, browse the cheapest knives by type and wear, or work out the cost of trading up to one with the knife trade-up calculator.
When a skin drops in a wear you like, the float checker shows how close its float is to the best the skin can be.
FAQ
Is the CS2 case simulator free?
Yes. It uses no real money and needs no login or Steam account. Nothing you open is added to any inventory; the tally only counts what you would have spent and what the drops are worth.
Are the odds in the simulator real?
They are Valve's disclosed weapon case rates: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and rare special item 0.26%. Each skin in a tier is equally likely, and every skin that exists as StatTrak has a 10% chance of being one.
How is the float and wear chosen?
The float is drawn evenly between the skin's minimum and maximum float, and the wear tier follows from it: under 0.07 Factory New, up to 0.15 Minimal Wear, up to 0.38 Field-Tested, up to 0.45 Well-Worn, then Battle-Scarred. Valve does not publish its exact roll, so the spread of wears you see is an approximation.
Where do the prices come from?
The lowest live Steam Community Market listing for that skin at the wear and StatTrak status that dropped, from the skins.com public price feed (snapshot 10 November 2026). If nothing is listed at that wear, the simulator shows that and counts it as zero.
What does one opening cost in the simulator?
The case price plus one key. Valve's store key is $2.49, so a case worth a few cents still costs about $2.60 to open. Five older cases use their own keys, priced from player listings. Every weapon case needs a key, so none are free to open.
Why does the simulator nearly always lose money?
Because that is how cases work on average: the typical drop is a Mil-Spec skin worth well under the cost of the key. Knives and gloves are 0.26% of drops. Run it a few hundred times and the net total drifts towards the expected return shown on the case odds page.
Can I open more than one case at a time?
Yes. Choose 1 to 5 above the Open button and each opening gets its own reel, all spinning together. The tally counts every one of them, and the result cards show each drop side by side. Turn on quick open to skip the animation entirely.
Is a CS2 case simulator the same as opening for real?
The contents, odds and prices are the same; what you win is not real. Opening a real case costs real money, and an average opening returns less than it costs.
